India now leads iPhone exports to the U.S. as trade war reshapes supply chains

Apple is now exporting more iPhones to the U.S. from India than China for the second month running, a clear sign of shifting production priorities.

Apple hit a major supply chain milestone in April 2025. For the second consecutive month, more iPhones bound for the U.S. were shipped from India than from China. According to new data from Canalys, shipments from India surged 76% year over year to an estimated three million units.

Shipments from China, by contrast, fell 76% to about 900,000. While the export milestone is a clear shift in Apple's manufacturing strategy, it comes outside the peak season for Pro iPhone models.

The surge in Indian exports reflects progress in Apple's plan to diversify. The most advanced iPhones remain tied to Chinese production.

Just the same, given that previous years non-Pro iPhones came from China at this time of year, the reversal reflects Apple's accelerated effort to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The company began building out its Indian supply chain during the pandemic, but renewed U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have added urgency.

In early May 2025, Apple CEO Tim Cook reiterated that most iPhones sold in the U.S. will eventually be assembled in India.

Apple leans on India as U.S.-China tensions rise

The ramp-up in Indian exports follows President Trump's latest round of tariffs, introduced in early April 2025. Although iPhones were exempted from the initial measures, Apple moved quickly to shift final assembly operations to avoid supply chain risk.

Analysts believe Apple may have also front-loaded shipments in March, stockpiling U.S.-bound units ahead of policy changes. India first surpassed China in iPhone exports to the U.S. that month, with the April figures reinforcing the trend.

Projected iPhone deliveries to the U.S. in 2025. Image credit: CNBC

Apple's Indian manufacturing operation, which now accounts for around 20% of its global iPhone output, still depends heavily on Chinese sub-assemblies. Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, said the shift to India covers only the final step of the production process.

"It was actually a very low lift for them to migrate more and more of the final assembly from China to India," Newman told CNBC. He added that the vast majority of the sub-assemblies are all still in China.

India's current production capacity also remains limited. U.S. iPhone demand averages 20 million units per quarter, and analysts at Omdia don't expect India to meet that scale before 2026.

Tariffs, costs and control complicate Apple's plan

Apple's diversification strategy faces headwinds from both Washington and Beijing. On social media, President Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on iPhones made in India, saying he wants them built in the U.S., "not India or anyplace else."

China has also pushed back by restricting the export of high-end manufacturing equipment and engineering talent needed by Apple's Indian suppliers. The move aims to keep control over the most advanced parts of the iPhone supply chain.

Manufacturing in India is also more expensive. In April 2025, costs were estimated to be 5% to 8% higher than in China. Apple has worked to offset that with tax incentives and streamlined logistics, including airlifting hundreds of tons of iPhones to the U.S. through "green corridor" programs earlier in 2025.

A green corridor is a fast-track export route that speeds up customs clearance. Apple used it to quickly airlift iPhones from India to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs.

Despite these obstacles, analysts say Apple is unlikely to reverse course. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities called the idea of shifting full iPhone production to the U.S. a "fairy tale," noting that Apple will continue investing in India regardless of short-term political pressure.

"India is the life raft," Ives said. "Cook will look to negotiate with Trump, but India is the focus and not changing."